UK National Debt

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The UK national debt is the total amount of money the British government owes to the private sector and other purchasers of UK gilts.
From figures published May 2010, UK public sector net debt was £903.0 billion. (or 62.2% of National GDP) – Source: Office National Statistics [1] (page updated June 18, 2010)
Excluding Financial sector intervention, public sector debt is £771 billion or (54% per cent of GDP)
The PBR (annual government borrowing) forecast for 2009/10 is for net borrowing of £178 billion or 12.6% of GDP.
Graph Showing UK National Debt

National debt UK : ONS

After a period of financial restraint, National debt at a % of GDP fell to 29% of GDP by 2002. Then, national Debt as a % of GDP  increased from 30% in 2002 to 37 % in 2007. This was despite the long period of economic expansion. It was primarily due to the governments decision to increase spending on health and education. There has also been a marked rise in social security spending.
Since 2008, National Debt has increased sharply  because of:

• Economics Recession (lower tax receipts, higher spending on unemployment benefits)
• Financial bailout of Northern Rock, RBS and other banks.

Although 60% of GDP is alot it is worth bearing in mind, that other countries have a much bigger problem. Japan for example have a National debt of 194%, Italy is over 100%.  The US national debt is close to 71% of GDP. [See other countries Debt]. Also the UK has had much higher National Debt. e.g. after the second world war it was over 180% of GDP.

National Debt and Financial Bailout

The Nationalisation of Bradford & Bingley and Government purchase of shares in major banks like HBOS will cause even more borrowing. It is estimated National debt will could rise close to 100% of GDP by 2012
It is way above the government’s sustainable investment rule of 40% maximum. However, the debt is  different in the sense that the government has a reasonable chance of getting, at least, some of its money back. It is different to say borrowing to pay pensions.

What is the Real Level of UK National Debt?

However, it is argued that UK’s national debt is actually a lot higher. This is because national debt should include pension contributions and private finance initiatives PFI which the government are obliged to pay.
The Centre for Policy Studies (at end of 2008) argues that the real national debt is actually £1,340 billion, which is 103.5 per cent of GDP. This figure includes all the public sector pension liabilities such as pensions, and Private Finance Initiative contracts e.t.c (Northern Rock liabilities).

• However, these pension liabilities are not things the government are actually spending now. Therefore, there is no need to borrow for them yet. It is more of a guide to future public sector debt. I don’t accept the fact that future pension liabilities should be counted as public sector debt. In 2006, the Statistics Office did change calculations to include some PFI into public sector debt figures [pdf - Treasury.gov.uk]
• However, it is a sign that it will be difficult to improve finances in the future.

Another problem is that with the financial crisis, the government have added an extra £500bn of potential liabilities. Note: the Government has offered to back mortgage securities. They are unlikely to spend this money. But, in theory the government could be liable for extra debts of upto £500bn. If we include this bailout package as a contingent liability National debt would be well over 100% of GDP.

Forecast for National Debt

Source: HM Treasury – may prove to be overly optimistic
The Public Borrowing Requirement forecast for 2009/10 is net borrowing of £178 billion.
Problems of National Debt

1. Interest Payments. The cost of paying interest on the government’s debt is very high. In 2008 Debt interest payments will be £31 billion a year (est 2.5% of GDP). In 2009, they will be £35 billion (similar to defence budget). Public sector debt interest payments could be be the 4th highest department after social security, health and education.
2. Higher Taxes in the future.
3. Crowding out of private sector investment / spending
4. The debt problem will only get worse as an ageing population places greater strain on the UK’s pension liabilities. (demographic time bomb)
5. Negative impact on Exchange Rate (link)

See also:

• Should We worry about National Debt?
• US National Debt
• Books on Debt at Amazon.co.uk
• What went wrong with US economy?
• Problem of Personal Debt in the UK
• How is National Debt financed?
• Public Debt at the Office of national Statistics

History of National Debt

national debt as % of GDP: Source: no 10.gov.uk

National Debt since 1900

• Historical National debt
• What are the prospects for UK Debt Default?

Original post "UK National Debt"

Layer 2 - Mezzanine Debt

Mezzanine Debt is provided by independent funds and on EBITDA multiple basis. It stands behind the senior debt. It is unsecured by assets and does not require a personal guarantee. This layer carries significantly more risk than senior debt. It is generally priced at 20% per annum. The mezzanine provider charges interest of approximately 12% per annum and takes a small equity warrant in the business ranging from 5 to 20%. The standard mezzanine debt multiple is 4 to 4.5 times EBITDA. Mezzanine loans are long term money. They usually require only interest payments with no principal payments for the first 3 to 4 years. Most mezzanine loans mature in 5 to 7 years. Because mezzanine lenders own a small piece of the business, they tend to share same risk reward profile as the business owner. It is in their own interest to promote growth of the business.

Mezzanine debt is a hybrid form of capital with features of both debt and equity. Mezzanine debt is generally structured as 6 years in maturity with interest only for the first three years. It ranks junior to senior bank debt. It carries an interest rate of approximately 12%. Mezzanine lenders target companies that are well established consistently profitable. Typically, these companies have strong cash flow but are not bankable due to a lack of hard assets. Mezzanine debt, when properly used, can provide all the capital needed for to fund an acquisition or buy-out. A business’ mezzanine debt capacity is easy to define and can make a world of difference in terms of ownership dilution.

Attract Capital is an expert in measuring any company’s mezzanine debt capacity. Regardless of the type of business, its revenue size ($10 million to $100 million) or financial trend (strong, flat, uneven) – we bring life to a business’ mezzanine debt potential. Through creating this possibility of mezzanine debt financing, we greatly expand our client’s access to capital.

Original post "Layer 2 - Mezzanine Debt"

360° LOCK YOUR SPOT! 100% Free to Join BEFORE May 15, 2010!

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How To Make Money

As money is changing into the prime factor in every and everybody’s life, persons are very involved in understanding the different ways of how to make money and make cash everyday. Regardless that there are a lot of ways with which one can earn money, how to make money it's important that one should learn to make cash legally. The basic elementary of incomes more cash is investing the money. The investments can both be stock market or any other equal techniques. No matter often is the technique of investment, make money on the internet however the ultimate result ought to always end up in biggest possible beneficial properties with diminished danger in the field of investment. One ought to learn the financial web sites and may know the other ways with which one can make investments his money earlier than they invests. The website one chooses must be a consumer friendly web site that explains the step-by-step procedure of the kind of investments. Making a living everyday isn't a troublesome task lately as there are many number of jobs available on the internet, make money on the internet is providing an choice to the individual itself to decide on the kind of job that he prefers to do. A number of the instance of job that is accessible online is getting paid for online surveys, since the area of promoting is getting improved. Generate profits by direct marketing, by making blogs, network marketing, and generate income by writing articles, by selling e-books and so on. Since web is on the market and open to all, the flexibility o the job by doing it from dwelling, doing it at versatile timings and so on, have created a ardour in people to opt for these online jobs. Additionally, they will do the web jobs as a part time job that's as an addition to their regular jobs, with the one the power required for the job because the capital.

Original post "How To Make Money"

Scrutiny of Goldman’s Role in Greek Debt Crisis Intensifies in US

Goldman Sachs appears to be testing the limits of its special talent for avoiding all accountability following revelations of its role in exacerbating the Greek debt crisis.

The bank has come under heavy criticism from European political officials over its role in helping Greece hide its debts, and on Wednesday, Greek labor unions staged a historic strike that shut down the country’s national infrastructure in response to economic policies urged by bankster elites. The European turmoil has forced US officials to take notice, and scrutiny of the bank is now coming from the unlikeliest of quarters, with Ben Bernanke telling Congress on Thursday that the Federal Reserve is looking into Goldman and questions surrounding the bank’s swap transactions with Greece.

Bernanke was vague about what, exactly, the Fed is investigating, and it is possible that the inquiry will go nowhere. But the fact that the Fed chair would make remarks that amplify concerns about Goldman’s role in Europe is a sign that the political winds have shifted significantly since Matt Taibbi’s “vampire squid” metaphor first captured the public imagination last summer. The populist outcry against bankster fraud and collusion finally shows signs of steering the authorities towards a more oppositional, watchdog role.

The truly scandalous story with respect to Goldman Sachs and Greece — that the bank may have been speculating heavily in the Greek debt markets at the same time it was trying to help the country hide its debt — is also starting to gain traction. During his testimony, Bernanke raised concerns about speculative activity in the Greek debt markets and said that the SEC was investigating, and Phil Angelides, chair of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, said that he was particularly concerned about Goldman’s role in betting against securities that it had helped create.

On Thursday the New York Times published a story with the headline “Banks Bet Greece Defaults on Debt They Helped Hide.” The article reported that a company backed by Goldman and other banks set up a new index in September of this year that investors could use to bet on the likelihood that Western European countries like Greece would default on their debt.

This is history repeating itself: the very same company that created this index set up a similar index in early 2006 that allowed investors to bet on the likelihood of defaults in the subprime bond market. That index was a collaboration between Markit and CDS IndexCo, a consortium of 16 banks, including Goldman Sachs, which has since been acquired by MarkIt. The acting chairman of CDS IndexCo was Goldman Sachs managing director Bradford S Levy, suggesting that Goldman has significant power within Markit now.

Guess which investors cleaned up on that index in 2006 and 2007? Goldman Sachs and partner-in-crime John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions betting against the subprime sector.

The sovereign index and its subprime predecessor would be less troubling if there was some transparency around Markit, the pricing mechanisms it uses, its owners (including Goldman Sachs), and so forth, given the critical informational role it plays in markets which threaten global financial stability quite frequently. The Department of Justice opened an investigation of the company for possible anti-trust violations last summer.

If Goldman is, in fact, using swaps to bet heavily on the likelihood of a Greek default at the same time that it is helping the country hide its debts, the parallels to its corrupt, cynical, and incredibly greedy housing bubble investment strategy extend beyond the Markit index. The game plan is fairly simple: stuff some entity full of hidden liabilities by devising securities that mask true levels of exposure, collect enormous fees for doing it, then find ways to make enormously profitable bets against the financial carcass created in the process.

Goldman Sachs and John Paulson did this with AIG, devising complex securities known as “synthetic CDOs” which were composed entirely of bets on a set of mortgage pools. Paulson (not to be confused with former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson) picked the mortgage pools, selecting the ones that were most likely to experience high levels of foreclosure. Goldman then created the securities and sold them to investors like AIG. The bets were essentially designed to fail, with Paulson (and Goldman) on the winning end. The hidden exposure was massive enough to take down AIG, threaten the world financial system, and necessitate a government bailout. These bailout funds were then passed through to Goldman Sachs.

Carolyn Maloney has noted these parallels and is now calling for a Congressional hearing on Goldman’s involvement in the Greek crisis.

Greece is far less likely to implode than AIG, and the liabilities that Goldman tucked into its national accounts are less severe. But now that the country is dealing with the prospect of financial ruin, Paulson and Goldman appear to share the same vulture flight pattern, once again. Paulson & Co is reported to have been speculating heavily in Greek debt markets with a team of 20-30 traders focused on the country. Goldman is also rumored to have been one of these speculators.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Paulson has since exited his large bearish bet on Greek debt. But in a sign that Paulson’s Greek adventures haven’t ended, Goldman recently took representatives of his hedge fund on a “field trip” to Greece:

On Jan. 28 and 29, analysts from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. took a group of investors on a field trip to meet with banks in Greece. The group included representatives from about a dozen different money managers, say attendees, including Chicago hedge-fund giant Citadel Investment Group, the New York hedge fund Eton Park Capital Management, and Paulson, which sent two employees, say people who were there. Eton Park declined to comment.

During meetings with the Greek deputy finance minister and executives from the National Bank of Greece, among other banks, some investors raised tough questions about the state of the country’s economy, according to these people.

Greece appears to have been negotiating for its economic future with Goldman Sachs and its network of hedge fund colluders, many of whom have taken large speculative positions on Greek debt. This amounts to an unofficial diplomatic mission, a negotiation between a sovereign country and the sociopathic financiers who hold sway over its economic fortunes. Is Europe really ok with that?

The Wall Street Journal article goes on to report on a Manhattan dinner party where a group of hedge fund managers discussed their bearish bets on the Euro. The article suggests that the funds are partnering on their trades, and includes a somewhat confusing sentence: “There is nothing improper about hedge funds jumping on the same trade unless it is deemed by regulators to be collusion.” So it isn’t collusion unless regulators have “deemed” it as such? And Madoff wasn’t actually running a Ponzi scheme before the SEC noticed?

The growing turmoil in Europe and Bernanke’s comments may signal that we’ve reached a tipping point — that these financial firms will no longer be able to avoid all substantial inquiries into their business practices, and that they’ll no longer hold sway over economic policies here and abroad. Not that Bernanke himself will follow through. But the need for a significant, public investigation of these individuals and their firms has become so pressing that even the most compromised US officials are paying it lip service.

Whether it happens here or in Europe, Goldman’s day in court is drawing near.

Original post "Scrutiny of Goldman’s Role in Greek Debt Crisis Intensifies in US"

Should Big Media Choose Our Candidates?

Why should ABC and Fox get to decide who is a viable candidate for president?

Should Big Media decide for the rest of us who is -- and more importantly who is not -- a viable candidate for president? It's bad enough that thus far the reporting of this year's quadrennial presidential pursuit has been even more insubstantial than ever, focused on the horse race, the fundraising, the polls, the pundits, the haircuts and assorted other bits of silliness -- anything other than actual issues of concern to voters and importance to the world.

Now we find Big Media, (specifically its Fox/ABC News wing,) determined to narrow the field of presidential candidates before any of us, other than a handful of white people in Iowa, even get a chance to vote!

Both television networks plan to winnow out presidential candidates they deem unacceptable and prevent them from participating in important debates to be held this weekend -- just before the crucial New Hampshire primary.

Fox has invited just five of the seven remaining Republican candidates to a forum with Chris Wallace scheduled for Sunday in the Granite State -- only two days before the nation's first presidential primary. Although Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Mitt Romney and even the barely breathing Fred Thompson were all invited, two current candidates, both current Members of Congress, were not -- Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul.

The Fox excuse? "Space is limited" in the "souped-up bus" that is serving as a mobile studio. As a result, Fox executives say that, for space reasons, they decided only to invite those candidates who had received double-digit support in recent polls. Forget the fact that Ron Paul actually is ahead of Thompson (6 percent to 4 percent) among all New Hampshire voters in the most recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, or that the two were tied with the support of 4 percent of likely voters ...

Forget as well the fact that Paul recently shattered the record for online fundraising in a single day, raising nearly $6 million in 24 hours -- a little more than a month after he amazed the pollsters, pundits and political professionals by hauling in $4.3 million during the same time span. (Not bad considering that on the day that John Kerry accepted the 2004 Democratic nomination, he raised $5.7 million on the Internet -- the biggest online fundraising day on record until the supposedly non-viable Ron Paul surpassed it.)

But consider at least these facts: in just the last three months, Paul collected more than $19.5 million, bringing his total for the year to more than $25 million. More than 130,000 contributors gave to Paul during the fourth quarter, including more than 107,000 new donors.

"This is exciting. It's crazy. I can't imagine any other Republican raising this kind of money this quarter. This means Ron Paul's message is really resonating with people," Jim Forsythe, who leads Paul's New Hampshire MeetUp group, told the Washington Post.

But Big Media doesn't seem as impressed -- at least now. Remember just a few months ago, however, when how much money a candidate was able to raise was the Big Media imprimatur of viability? Now that Ron Paul has vaulted near the top of the fundraisers, it seems the bar is being moved, and is set a little higher for him.

Lorikeets As Live-Ins - What to Expect From Pet Lorikeets

Lorikeets are an incredibly colorful variety of parrot. Their stunning plumage has led to names such as Yellow-streaked, Olive-headed, Black-winged, Plum-faced, Purple-crowned, and Rainbow. If you are considering purchasing a Lorikeet as a family pet you will certainly have added a stunningly beautiful companion. But before you make your final decision take a look at what to expect from your pet Lorikeet, and what it will expect from you. Personality--The Lorikeet is very active and is full of antics both in the wild and in captivity. Their pointed tail and tapered wings gives them the gift of flexibility and easy flight. Those with blunt tails are often referred to as Lories. They are easily tamed, and will provide entertainment for hours often behaving more like a cat than a bird. Don't panic if you find your bird lying on its back with its feet poking straight up. They often sleep in this unnerving (for you) position. Implications of Size--A small Lorikeet is relatively quiet and does not have the talking ability of the larger lorikeet. It is more suited for those who live where low noise is a requirement. The larger lorikeet is quite noisy and talkative, and can imitate household appliances such as the dishwasher, microwave, and even a flushing toilet. Larger Lorikeets require an owner who is willing to do regular obedience training to maintain a safe and proper relationship between bird and family. Cages--Large and uncluttered are best to allow for proper exercise and movement. The minimum cage size for a single Lorikeet should
be 3' high X 3 1/2' wide X 24" deep. Check for a powder coat paint finish that is lead free, and a cage that is free of brass, lead and other metals that are highly toxic. Dietary Requirements--Originally from the tropics, Lorikeets dined on nectar and fruit and were known as honeyeaters. This exotic diet must continue in your home. Commercial or home-made honey should be given daily, and honey should be removed from the cage before it spoils (more likely to occur during warm weather) or it will kill your bird. Fruits should consist of grapes, apples, pineapple, cantaloupe, pomegranates, papaya, figs, kiwi, and a variety of vegetables. Avocado, new potatoes, chocolate, or any substance with caffeine or alcohol should be avoided as they are toxic to birds. Lorikeets should also have their diet balanced by making flowers such as marigold, pansies, roses, hibiscus and dandelions available daily. Using organic fruits and flowers will insure that they are free of pesticides. Maintenance--Lorikeets require a bit more maintenance than most birds because their diet causes them to have a fairly runny stool which they can, and often do, eject out of the cage and onto walls floors and other nearby furniture. Viruses can then very easily attach to these droppings and go airborne to cause illness in your bird and sometimes family. To avoid the spread of disease, replenish fresh water as needed, clean the cage and the surrounding floor daily, and use an air purifier to eliminate airborne pollutants that can cause the spread of disease and infection.

Original post "Lorikeets As Live-Ins - What to Expect From Pet Lorikeets"